Good morning. The combo of hawkish Fed policy and historic inflation, among other headwinds, are creating vast uncertainty in the markets. Top analysts are warning of more tumult to come.
Let's get started.
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1. Stocks are losing their appeal as an inflation hedge. Weakening corporate earnings and soaring inflation mean that real earnings yield is the lowest since the 1950s, according to Morgan Stanley.
As investors wake up to the reality that stocks aren't protecting them from the highest inflation in 40 years, the S&P 500 could fall as much as 17%, the firm's Mike Wilson wrote in a Monday note.
But its not just markets — the economy is also teetering. In a Monday column in the Financial Times, economist Mohamed El-Erian said the policy response to high inflation from the Federal Reserve will bring turmoil to the economy, and possibly a recession.
Monetary tightening will add pressure to an already-slowing global economy, the Queens' College President warned. He expects the country's monetary and fiscal drivers of growth to rapidly deteriorate.
"The risk of recession associated with this is unsettling," El-Erian wrote. He named several key headwinds facing the global economy, including:
- China's zero-Covid policies
- A potential EU oil embargo against Russia
- Energy supply-chain snags
In other news:
2. US futures edged higher early Tuesday, as the Fed prepares to hike rates this week. Meanwhile, the key 10-year Treasury yield smashed through 3% for the first time in over three years. Here are the latest moves.
3. On the docket: Big 5 Sporting Goods, Assurant Inc, and Prudential Financial, all reporting.
4. Recession risks are rising and investors need to play defense. That's according to Bank of America's Savita Subramanian — she broke down her recommendations on how traders can arrange their portfolios for the current landscape.
5. Citi admits a trader error sparked a "flash crash" that sent Swedish stocks plunging and European shares tumbling. The bank said the trader made an error when inputting a transaction. Swedish stocks tumbled 8% in a matter of minutes on Monday before rebounding. Here's what happened.
6. India's top steelmaker will stop importing Russian coal. Tata Steel brought in 617,000 tonnes of Russian coal in the first quarter, but will put a halt to it due to "uncertainties" created by Western sanctions on Moscow.
7. Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger trashed bitcoin and rang the inflation alarm in Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting. The two investing legends also revealed their bets on Apple and Activision Blizzard, and broke down their concerns regarding passive investors like BlackRock. Here are 12 key takeaways.
8. This miner explains how he started mining bitcoin using his work computer. Vic Laranja eventually scaled up to utilize a separate GPU mining rig that would mine ethereum and reward him in BTC. Here's the software he uses to increase hash rates.
9. Jesse Cramer paid off $42,000 in debt and built a net worth of $325,000 through "lazy investing." While he started with a negative net worth, he is now on his way to achieving financial independence. These are his best money-saving strategies.
10. Who exactly is middle class in the US? For starters, it's a demographic that's been shrinking for a decade, and refers to someone making about $30,000 to $90,000. These eight charts break down the numbers behind America's middle class.
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Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email [email protected] or tweet @philrosenn.)
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